RADANOVIĆ: CEUTA CRISIS EXPOSED WEAKNESSES IN SPAIN'S MIGRATION POLICY

BANJA LUKA, JULY 31 /SRNA/ - Developments in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta go beyond the scope of a conventional migration crisis and represent a serious challenge to sovereignty and border control, exposing weaknesses in Madrid's migration policy, political analyst Srđan Radanović said.

Radanović told SRNA that more than 50,000 migrants had entered Ceuta in less than 24 hours, which, he said, posed a serious security challenge for a city with a population of about 85,000.

He believes that Morocco's initially restrained response can be interpreted as political pressure on Spain, noting that Rabat regards Ceuta and Melilla as remnants of Spanish colonialism and part of its own territory.

"It remains uncertain whether Spain will permanently regain full control over Ceuta. This crisis is therefore the biggest test yet of its ability to protect its border and sovereignty," Radanović said.

Radanović said that any takeover of Ceuta by Morocco would have major geopolitical consequences in that part of the Mediterranean, but would not mean Morocco would also gain control of the Strait of Gibraltar, which depends on the broader balance of power involving the United Kingdom, NATO, Spain and the EU.

"If Morocco were to assume sovereignty over Ceuta, it would mark the biggest change in that part of the Mediterranean since the Second World War," Radanović said.

He said the reactions of European countries had demonstrated the seriousness of the crisis, stressing that France and Italy had tightened border controls, and that calls for changes to migration policy were growing louder in several European countries.

"Regardless of how the crisis unfolds, Spain will have to seriously reconsider its migration policy, as this is also a matter of domestic political stability and public confidence in the state's ability to control its borders," Radanović said.

He said that the easing of the situation and the departure of some of the migrants do not resolve the underlying problem and that a lasting solution would only be possible if Spain and Morocco redefine their relationship regarding Ceuta and Melilla.