PAVIĆ: TRUMP COULD MANAGE TO RETAIN HIS MAJORITY

BELGRADE, NOVEMBER 2 /SRNA/ – Political analyst Aleksandar Pavić believes that US President Donald Trump could retain Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress despite the Democrats’ lead in opinion polls, noting that even unfavourable results in the upcoming midterm elections would not necessarily mean a long-term decline in support for the US President.

Pavić told SRNA that the growing influence of so-called democratic socialists, who "sound almost like Bolsheviks," could undermine the Democrats' electoral prospects in the upcoming congressional elections and create an opportunity for Trump to retain the Republican majority in Congress.

"They sound almost like Bolsheviks now. They want to dismantle the entire system, and they are radically anti-Israel and anti-capitalist. This could hurt the Democrats in certain areas. As a result, this may be something that prevents them from achieving the success they had hoped for," Pavić believes.

On the other hand, he noted that the economy always comes first for Americans, which is why some believe economic concerns could threaten Trump's majorities in both chambers of Congress.

Pavić pointed out that opinion polls suggest the Democrats are ahead and that Trump is unpopular, but stressed that the same had been with some previous US presidents, who were very unpopular during the first part of their terms.

He cited former US President Ronald Reagan as an example, noting that he suffered a crushing defeat in the midterm elections, only to become highly popular two years later.

Pavić said the election results would undoubtedly affect the second half of Trump's presidential term.

"If the Democrats win a majority, even if only in the House of Representatives, they will probably launch not an impeachment process but various investigations and hearings, waging a political and media war against Trump in Congress, just as they did during his first term," Pavić believes.

He assessed that in such circumstances it would be extremely difficult for Trump to pass new legislation unless he made major compromises, which is why these midterm elections are particularly important.

Pavić recalled that opinion polls show the Democrats enjoying some advantage nationally due to inflation, which has largely been driven by the rising cost of living and the sharp increase in fuel prices. He said that, in the public perception, these developments were linked to the war in Iran and the fact that the USA, together with Israel, had attacked Iran.

For this reason, he added, it had been important for Trump to reach an agreement with Russia on allowing Russian diesel to enter the global market in order to bring energy prices down, at least to some extent.

If Trump were to lose the congressional elections, Pavić said, it would weaken his position by making it much harder for him to pass laws, as Republicans would no longer be able to push bills through Congress without reaching compromises with the Democrats.

He noted that US presidents have extensive executive powers and can do a great deal without congressional approval, but ponted out that a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives could significantly slow Trump down.

"They could wage a media war against him through various hearings, simply create a hostile atmosphere in the House of Representatives and generate political chaos in the country. This could encourage those who staged mass demonstrations in the streets over the summer to believe that they should take even more radical action when the warmer weather returns," he said.

Therefore, Pavić stresses, it election outcome does matter to Trump.

"It would be better for him if the Republicans retained their majority. His hands would not be completely tied, but the second half of his term would certainly be more difficult," Pavić said.

Pavić assessed that, if victorious, the Democrats would certainly seek to have Trump resume support for Ukraine. He added that EU leaders would eagerly welcome any weakening of the US President's position, which would encourage them to continue supporting the war in Ukraine.

"This would therefore have implications not only for the USA but for Europe as well," Pavić said.